Is this turbo going to leak

Yes it's going to leak. It looks like it rusted through the housing and is really thin there, probably from being stored outdoors or some other wet environment.. Since it's a low/no stress spot you might be able to build enough weld up around and over it to seal it up but ideally you'd replace the CHRA so you'd be looking at getting it rebuilt somewhere to do it right.

For me looks like end of threaded hole from bottom flange bolt , take bolt out and check if it’s same hole , use compressed air or some spray to check if it’s going through.